Zero duty, or the full rate plus a penalty.
A trade agreement only gives you preferential duty if the goods actually originate — and "originate" is a technical test, not where they were shipped from. This tool runs the three routes (wholly obtained, change of tariff heading, value-added) against five agreements and tells you which proof you'd have to hold. It stops short of certainty on purpose.
Three routes to originating status. Only one has to pass.
Wholly obtained — grown, mined or produced entirely in the country, no processing test needed. Change of tariff heading — the non-originating inputs entered under a different 4-digit HS heading than the finished good. Value-added — non-originating materials stay under a percentage of the ex-works price. Which of those counts is set per HS code by the agreement's Annex.
Indicative · CTH and value-added are NOT interchangeable · confirm the Annex rule · not customs advice
Why the verdict says "likely" and not "yes".
The Annex rule is per HS code
Every agreement carries a Product-Specific Rule table running to thousands of lines. Your code might demand CTH only, value only, or both. Without that rule confirmed, this tool assesses against a representative either-route assumption and caps the verdict at "likely". Confirm the Annex rule to make it definitive.
CTH and value are not interchangeable
Passing the value test does not save you if your Annex rule is CTH-only, and vice versa. Treating them as substitutes is one of the most common ways a preference claim goes wrong.
A wrong claim costs more than the duty
Claim preference you aren't entitled to and you owe the full MFN duty retrospectively plus a penalty — and you're the one who has to hold the evidence if HMRC asks. "Probably fine" is not a records position.
You must hold the proof
Whether it's a statement on origin, importer's knowledge or a certificate, the proof is a document you have to be able to produce. The tool names which one each agreement requires — it doesn't create it for you.